To je proracun za neke grane balkanske R1a, ne generalno R1a. Konkretno Z280 ali tkz. karpatsko-dalmatinski klaster, koji je dominantnan u zapadnim krajevima bivse SFRj i bugarski M458. Predak prve grupe ziveo je pre vise od 3000 god, a predak bugarski R1a M458 pre vise od 2500 god.
Za J2b M205 to moze biti jedna od opcija, ali ne treba ici tom logikom generalno. Po tome, svi smo na mestu na kom zive nasi preci hiljadama godina... i i2a ds i R1a i j2b1 Prilicno nerealno, s obzirom na istorijska desavanja.
Bilo je dosta promena.
Međutim postoji antropološki kontinuitat, tačnije evoucija, na ovom prostoru.
R1a je došla. I E V 13 je došla. I J2b1 je došla, po meni pre 2700 u okviru trakokimerskih seoba.
Ženska populacija je manje mobilna.
Kada imamo migracije, često se formiraju neki koridori po kojima se odvija razmena stanovništva. U jednom tranutku u jednom, a u nekom drugom u suprotnom smeru. Takav jedan koridor je duž Tise i Moriša.
Kod proračuna starosti imamo dve metodoogije koje daju drastično različite rezultate. Mislim dao ovim manjim problem prave povratne mutacije.
Gledao sam jedan rad po kome je bugarski 458 star preko 10000godina.
"The network of haplogroup I-M423 is characterized by a star-like shape centred on the most frequent haplotype, present in all Balkan populations. The network topology, together with the age estimates, is in accordance with previous inferences that haplogroup I-M423 is the genetic record of Balkan Mesolithic foragers and their expansion after the adoption of agriculture [34]. It is worth noticing that the Bulgarian samples are scattered all over the network; belonging to expanded, rare, and unique haplotypes. This diversity is consistent with an associated antiquity of Hg I-M423 in Bulgaria.
Haplogroup E-V13 displays a star-like network radiating from a central haplotype mainly found in the Balkan populations. This pattern, together with coalescence estimates, points to a recent and rapid expansion of this lineage in the Balkans. Not considering Bosnian Croats and Macedonian Greeks, for which standard errors are too large, the highest age in the Balkans, dating back to Mesolithic times, is found in Western Bulgaria (9.3±3 kya). This value, which overlaps that registered in Turkey (10.6±3 kya), indicates that haplogroup E-V13 was already present (if not originated) in Mesolithic times in Western Bulgaria from where it underwent expansion with the transition to farming.
The network of Y-STR haplotypes associated with Hg R-M458, the European branch of haplogroup R-M17/M198, is characterized by a star-like center of expansion and complex reticulations that can be solved only by improving the phylogenetic resolution of this haplogroup. Still, the majority of the M458 derived samples occupy the star-like portion of the network, in agreement with a North-Central European origin and the subsequent expansion previously reported [36]. Although it is likely that the age estimates of this lineage mainly reflect these demographic events, it is not possible to exclude that they are biased by the coexistence of different sub-lineages within this unresolved haplogroup. In this regard, it is worth mentioning that, as previously suggested [48]–[50], haplogroup R1a-M17 could be a signal of various events ranging from early post-LGM expansions to more recent Slavic demography. Hence, the old coalescent times, such as those obtained for Eastern Bulgaria (12.4±5 kya) and the Caucasus (10.1±3 kya), should be considered with caution in that multiple founders (or multiple demographic episodes) can inflate these estimates.
The network of Hg R-L23* is characterized by multiple reticulations, which confirm that this haplogroup includes sub-clades yet to be discovered [37]. The frequency and variance distributions of R-L23 (data not shown), together with its age variation, locate the most ancient presence of this lineage in the Circum-Pontic region, where similar estimates, coinciding with the post-glacial period, are registered: 16.8±7 kya in Eastern Bulgaria, 14.3±1 kya in Romania, 14.0±3 kya in the Caucasus and 13.6±2 kya in Anatolia. We abstain from premature conclusions on the coalescent estimate in Eastern Bulgaria since a significant portion of this value derives from a very different singleton haplotype whose exclusion substantially decreases the age estimate to 9.3±4 kya.
Haplogroup J-M241 shows a network with the central and most frequent haplotype being widespread in the Southern Balkans - a likely consequence of a rapid expansion probably started in Neolithic times in Asia Minor [34]. Since the periphery of the network is mainly occupied by haplotypes found outside this region (Apulians, Indians and Nepalese) the present results do not provide any useful evidence for the identification of the J-M241 homeland. On the other hand, the high age estimates in these populations could be due to recurrent gene flow from different sources. Leaving aside Apulians, Indians and Nepalese, the highest ages, compatible with a Neolithic expansion, are obtained in regions around the Black Sea, namely Anatolia (9.1±2 kya) and Bulgaria, in particular its central part (7.8±3 kya). Consequently, in this region, haplogroup J-M241 can be considered as a genetic signal of the expansion of farmers towards Southeast Europe possibly enhanced by the breaching of the Bosphorus Sill and the flood of the Pontic Lake with marine water."
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0056779
ako se ima dovoljan broj uzoraka prosto neverovatno koliko procentualno malo muslimana i katolika.
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