Solidan racio za Palmiu
ISIS has seized the opportunity to attack Palmyra due to the heavy focus on Aleppo and recent reports of Russian withdraw from Palmyra. The obvious motive is to take back what was once theirs and for a major moral boost for the series of defeats they have faced.
These motivations certainly play a role in this attack, but for them to redeploy manpower in the hundreds to East Homs when they are simultaneously being attacked in Mosul, Al-Bab,and Raqqa shows a potential deeper reasoning than this.
Moral boost is the temporary goal, as ISIS knows they will not hold Palmyra long, if they can even take all of it and T4. They need supplies and weapons, and more importantly, they need manpower. Palmyra buys ISIS time for their 'real crown jewel', something they have had their fingers around for years but could just not quite grab - Deir ez-Zor.
Taking the gas fields and checkpoints around Palmyra now sets the future Deir ez-Zor offensive back farther. East Homs will have to be retaken and secured, and we have seen how long it takes to completely secure and disarm the mines/explosives left behind. ISIS knows the rebels are crumbling (and so are they, just not as fast), but when Aleppo falls, thousands of SAA/Allies soldiers will be freed up for new offenses, and it is only a matter of time before the SAA turns the focus from rebels to ISIS mainly.
ISIS supply and ammo dumps have been wiped short from all the attacks coming from 360 degrees on them, and supply routes are all but cut off. Manpower is even more desperate. By attacking Palmyra, ISIS gains more weapons/ammo/heavy equipment which can be used on more Deir ez-Zor offenses, and gives them more time, which they need plenty of, as shown by the difficulty of taking of Deir ez-Zor.
You may think ISIS is in no place to wage new offenses, and I tentatively would agree, but we all should know better than to underestimate ISIS, as they have been full of surprises in the past and even with this offensive on Palmyra.
Deir ez-Zor is not too far from being cut in half, and the airport would then be isolated from most of the city. These 'hit and run' tactics in East Homs give them more weapons to continue fighting, and if they somehow managed to divide Deir-ez-Zor in two, taking the population center would be easier. The airport is a fortress, and has held despite countless attacks and VBED's by ISIS for years. By completely taking the population center of Deir ez-Zor, ISIS gains more subjects to tax and to fill their ranks. Most importantly, ISIS is much better at holding densely populated areas than open desert due to airstrikes limitations, as seen in Mosul.
Short term moral boosts/resupply from a successful Palmyra offensive, which only needs to be taken long enough to resupply and buy time, could be the potential underlying reason of the longterm goal of Deir-ez-Zor. This will not be an easy task, but as all the lights shine on Aleppo, perhaps enough shade has formed to allow ISIS to make major gains in this front thought to be stagnant.
