analiza situacije u iraku
The present conflict in Iraq emerges from the confluence of two factors in Iraq: the cultural divide between Sunni and Shia, on the one hand, and the jihadist insurgency during the American occupation, on the other. Both factors have converged in ISIS (the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham).
ISIS is a radical jihadist Sunni group formed by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi shortly after the US invasion of Iraq. The group swore allegiance to al-Qaeda in 2004 and were dubbed "al-Qaeda in Iraq" by the US. They quickly rose to become the chief umbrella organization of the Iraqi insurgency, and took the name "Islamic State of Iraq" (ISI) in October 2006. ISI's power was centered in the Sunni western half of Iraq, with Baqubah as its capital. At present, it is incorrect to call ISIS “al-Qaeda” (as MSM do): ISIS has surpassed al-Qaeda and has absorbed many of al-Qaeda’s operatives.
In a July 2005 letter to al-Qaeda's Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Zarqawi outlined a four-stage plan for the establishment of an Islamic State: (1) expelling U.S. forces from Iraq, (2) establishing an Islamic authority (caliphate), (3) spreading the conflict to Iraq's secular neighbors, and (4) engaging in the Arab–Israeli conflict. At present, (1) has been achieved and (2), (3) and (4) partially achieved.
In 2006, al-Zarqawi was killed and leadership passed to the Egyptian militant Abu Ayyub al-Masri. Under al-Masri's leadership, ISI conducted indiscriminate attacks on Iraqi civilians, leading to a loss of popularity and the group’s near-destruction by US forces in 2010.
The group went underground, and emerged as the power behind al-Nusra in the Syrian civil war. The groups new leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was committed to the original goals set out by al-Zarqawi, and renamed the group ISIS to signify its involvement in both Syria and Iraq. Al-Baghdadi’s identity is unknown, and some sources allege that he is actually several people.
ISIS' power in Syria was centered in Raqqah, extending to Idlib and Aleppo. In 2013, al-Nusra broke with ISIS, leaving the leadership of the Syrian insurgency broken. ISIS, nevertheless, maintains strength in Syria; starting in April 2013, the group made rapid military gains in controlling large parts of Northern Syria. In May 2013, ISIS carried out a car bombing in Turkey that killed 51 people; in July 2013, it raided Abu Ghraib prison, freeing 500 jihadists.
During the latter half of 2013, Sunni resistance to the Shi'ite Maliki government in Iraq grew as claims of Shi'ite oppression of Sunnis spread. In Ramadi, a Sunni protest camp emerged, demanding elections and greater Sunni representation in parliament. The leading figure of this movement was the parliamentarian Ahmed al-Awlani. ISIS successfully infiltrated this group, spreading itself from its new base in Syria back into Iraq, along the Qaim-Ramadi-Fallujah corridor.
In late December, 2013, Maliki ordered the arrest of al-Awlani. ISIS took charge of the Sunni protest, demanding that al-Awlani be released. Maliki refused; in response, ISIS form a military alliance with the western Sunni tribes and launched a rapid military offensive. Within days, Fallujah had fallen and repeated ISF attacks were driven back. Between January-June 2014, ISIS consolidated its position in Anbar and Ninevah provinces in western Iraq and integrated their operations there with their Syrian organization. In June, ISIS launched a sudden offensive against an unprepared ISF, capturing many of their old strongholds (as ISI) in Mosul (Ninevah), Salahuddin province, Diyala province, and Anbar province. At present, ISIS is the richest and most powerful jihadist group on Earth, has extended its operations to Iran, Lebanon, Jordan, Libya, and Palestine, and threatens Baghdad.
