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Eric Nuttall: The bullish supply-demand case for oil — looming recession aside
Eric Nuttall - Yesterday 10:46 a.m.
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OPEC+ will gather in Vienna on Wednesday for a meeting to address falling oil prices.© Provided by Financial Post
Bruised by a 33-per-cent selloff in the oil price since summer and still suffering from recency bias inflicted by the COVID-19 pandemic, oil traders and energy investors alike are now gripped with a new fear: meaningful demand destruction resulting from a recession caused by rising interest rates around the globe.
What would a recession mean for the oil price, and can investors simultaneously believe in the likelihood of one yet still be wildly bullish on energy stocks?
Recessions do not always result in negative oil demand, and can equally lead to only a moderation in the rate of demand growth. Think back to the global COVID-19 recession of 2020, when we were locked in our homes, not driving for weeks at a time, and only military and cargo planes were flying, yet oil demand only fell by about eight per cent, demonstrating just how difficult it is to lower oil demand despite the most challenging economic environment in modern history.
Prior to this, the recession of 2009 induced by the great financial crisis, when the world’s entire financial system was hours away from ending, only led to a moderate two per cent decline in oil demand. And other recessions, such as in 2001 and 1991, had positive oil demand growth. What makes today’s setup so different to 2020 and 2009?
The market is myopically ignoring several factors that could in aggregate fully offset a severe recession’s impact on demand
and lead to an even tighter oil market in 2023: China is beginning to ease its COVID-19-zero policies that led to a drop in demand of approximately 0.5 million barrel per day; Europe is switching to oil from natural gas, which could boost demand by 0.7 million barrels per day; the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus (OPEC+) has a proven playbook to remove barrels from the market when there is a break between the physical demand for oil and the financial; there is an impending European Union ban on Russian crude oil imports on Dec. 5 that could finally result in a material hit to Russian oil production; and United States shale producers, the only source of short-cycle supply, are now beginning to set their drilling plans for the year ahead in the face of an oil price collapse.