Danny Makki@DannymakkisyriaRoving Damascene | Syria Analyst:
dannymakkisyr@gmail.com | Views My Own
Feb. 29, 2020 4 min read
Thread/ As one of the biggest regional escalations in the history of the
#Syria war unfolds, here are a few thoughts on the Turkish-Russian/Syrian triangle of fighting in
#Idlib – who will back down
1/Evidently
#Russia has many limitations and concerns when it comes to an armed confrontation with
#Turkey, something which has become increasingly apparent with its decisions in Syria, it does not want to enter a direct war with Turkey
2/
#Russia has always proceeded with caution with its regional competitors or partners in
#Syria, be that NATO, Turkey, or even Israel, it prefers to take a neutral or passive stance, for example the Syrian S300’s have not been activated and use of them is clearly not allowed.
3/Russian jets have barely seen the skies in Syria since the deadly strikes on Turkish troops, so
#Russia is unwilling to engage
#Turkey directly, Lavrov stated that “as soon as Russians found out (strikes), it requested gov forces to stop offensive to provide a safe evacuation”
4/The Turkish military through artillery and precise drones have been targeting with much success hundreds of Syrian positions, amour, & installations since the Turkish backed recapture of Saraqib which has heavily damaged the SAA (pro-government media has been coy on casualties)
5/ Turkey has done more harm to the Syrian army in days than whole areas & sectors did in years of fighting, the Syrian military has shown a complete lack of ability to deal with Turkish drones, videos of Turkish-inflicted carnage caused some criticism towards the Russians.
6/ For SAA it has been loss after loss with regards to men and equipment since
#Turkey began hitting positions & amour, which tells us why advances have been so slow in certain areas &casualties high. Turkish drones have been over Idlib like hornets over the last few days
7/ Images of captured Syrian amour also show the rare use of camouflage, suggesting measures have been taken to decrease vulnerability to drone strikes, meaning they have been getting targeted for a while now, and the Russians have been able to provide no assistance or reprieve .
8/ There still is time for
#Russia to re-assert its dominance, but even then, no real desire exists to enter a long-drawn-out proxy confrontation with
#Turkey in
#Idlib, Russia’s main interests in
#Syria have been secured.
9/
#Russia supports the Syrian army with air strikes, but in return it has no willingness to do anything else, its economic interests are secured (taking over Syrian gas & phosphates. ect), it wants to reap the benefits of its intervention not get drawn into to a regional war.
10/ For Russia the lack of defensive assistance to the SAA and the lack of Russian jets over
#Idlib suggest one main theme,
#Russia wanted
#Turkey to respond and get it over with, and then act depending on how bad the situation was.
11/ For the Syrian army, the situation was catastrophic, and the large losses in manpower and equipment have not only added up, but have paralyzed the Syrian army around
#Idlib, meaning a well-planned militant offensive could reverse most SAA gains this month.
12/ Whilst its difficult to provide estimations, perhaps SAA casualties have averaged around 50 a day since
#Turkey began using armed drones, fighting on the front-lines included. The equipment losses have been considerable, but conspicuously easier to replace.
13/
#Turkey has been striking areas away from
#Idlib, sfira defense factories in
#Aleppo were targeted and Nairab/Kwaires air-bases were reportedly struck . If Turkey continues volume of attacks, SAA will not be able to fend of any ground attacks without serious Russian air-power
14/There is still some controversy over who conducted the strikes which killed 34 Turkish soldiers in
#Idlib, Turkish gov refraining from any blame on
#Russia for the incidence. So Turkey does have the Russian deterrent in Idlib if it pushes too far, but how far is too far now?
15/ The attack on Turkish forces happened at night, and Syrian warplanes lack effective night-time capabilities, its air force rarely operates in the evening.
16/NATO & U.S government have decided to back Turkey, at least politically and Erdogan has held an intransigent stance on
#Idlib, so who will back down? Turkey cannot afford to, but Russia may have allowed Syrian forces to be smashed to pieces by drones as a way to appease Turkey
17/ There has been a rising anti-Russian tone since
#Turkey began its drone strikes.
#Syria also faces an air-defense problem, whatever acceptable defenses it has are based in the south, its defenses in north are isolated, small in number, ineffective and susceptible to jamming.
18/ Whilst the strikes which killed two dozen Turkish soldiers are highly significant and represent an escalation of the type we haven’t seen before, the Turkish response has been deadly for SAA, perhaps ending any further serious Idlib offensive in the immediate future.
19/ Whilst the Syrian army may wait and take stock of its losses,
#Turkeycannot overreach itself without butting heads with
#Russia at some point, all it takes is for one Russian soldier to be targeted and the stakes change all over again.
20/ Lets remember that while Turkish forces were being bombed by the Russians in
#Idlib earlier this month, joint Turkish and Russian patrols were taking place elsewhere in
#Syria, so it’s a complicated situation.