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Russian Channel FighterBomberIn light of the enemy’s introduction of USVs, which have learned to successfully use air-to-air missiles with IR seekers, the situation in the Black Sea has sharply shifted against us. It changed in a single day - Fighterbomber
In light of the enemy’s introduction of USVs, which have learned to successfully use air-to-air missiles with IR seekers, the situation in the Black Sea has sharply shifted against us. It changed in a single day.
Now, we can destroy USVs essentially only during the daytime, in good weather, using jet aviation, attack aircraft, and fighters. And not just good weather—I would say very good weather, with a high cloud ceiling.
Perhaps we will try using Ka-52 helicopters with "eggs of life" (Vitebsk-25 EWS), but both the first and second options will likely be employed only until the first losses.
At present, the surface fleet is unable to protect itself from USVs in open waters—or rather, it cannot defend itself effectively. With varying degrees of success, it can defend itself in bays and at bases. Consequently, with the (perhaps temporary) elimination of the helicopter component, we (and effectively no one else) cannot ensure the safety of civilian shipping at sea.
For those who may have forgotten, let me remind you: a USV is essentially a hydrofoil capable of racing at speeds close to 100 km/h, onto which any type of weapons and EW systems it can carry can be installed. We already face USVs configured for air defense, equipped with missiles and automatic turreted machine guns. One can expect the emergence of USVs carrying drones, EW systems, and MLRS rockets.
Due to their speed and maneuverability, it is practically impossible to hit a USV with an FPV drone or loitering munition. The same applies to ATGMs. And where would they be launched from? From a helicopter? That’s not feasible—the rotor’s air turbulence blows everything away. Plus, helicopters are now being shot down. From the shore? The USV won't come close enough. From a ship? Only if the ship is moored near the shore. Considering the inevitable emergence of USVs with EW capabilities, even if FPV drones or regular drones somehow manage to show some effectiveness, it will not last long.
As of today, it can be stated that the "mosquito fleet" strategy has completely defeated the large fleet strategy in the Black Sea. The difference is that instead of small ships and boats being used as offensive and support means, USVs now fulfill this role.
In the ocean, this approach might not yet take off, but it’s only a matter of a few years. It’s clear that the same will happen there. Additionally, underwater drones will be added as soon as the issue of underwater remote control is resolved.
Interestingly, this tactic was anticipated in Laos (Russian Federation), and some military personnel even tried to push for and develop it long before the current conflict—many years ago. However, defeating the gas turbine advocates was not possible then, nor is it possible now.
Perhaps the problem of USVs will be temporarily resolved when the ability to jam their control frequencies—or the frequencies of Starlink or other satellite communications—is developed. But in three years of conflict, neither side has managed to do so effectively. Moreover, fiber-optic control is also rapidly advancing, as are other types of communications being urgently tested.
We can theorize about strike drones with anti-USV weaponry, but as of today, such systems exist only in theory and are unavailable to anyone.
Thus, the battle at sea has moved to a new level. And with the exclusion of our helicopters from this equation, we have "suddenly" shifted to the position of catching up.
