Some studies support the possibility of a lunar effect. For example, a study concluded that schizophrenic patients show signs of deterioration, in terms of quality of life and mental well-being, during the time of a full moon.[3] Some researchers have studied positive correlations between physiological changes such as induced seizures in epileptic patients and non-epileptic subjects, and the full moon period. A 2004 study found a statistically significant correlation between the lunar effect and hospital admissions due to gastrointestinal bleeding, particularly among males.[4]
Sallie Baxendale and Jennifer Fisher of University College London hypothesized in a study published by Epilepsy & Behavior that the impact of the moon phase on epileptic seizures is due to the moon's contribution to nocturnal illumination. [5] A significant negative correlation between the mean number of seizures and the fraction of the moon illuminated by the sun (ρ = -0.09, P < 0.05) was found in 1571 seizures recorded in a dedicated epilepsy inpatient unit over 341 days. This correlation disappeared when the local clarity of the night sky was controlled for, suggesting that it may be the brightness of the night and the contribution the moon phase makes to nocturnal luminance that influence the occurrence of epileptic seizures.
Psychologist Ivan Kelly of the University of Saskatchewan (with James Rotton and Roger Culver) did a meta-analysis of thirty-seven studies that examined relationships between the moon's four phases and human behavior in 1996. The meta-analysis revealed no significant correlation. They also checked twenty-three studies that had claimed to show correlation, and nearly half of these contained at least one statistical error.[6]
A study of 4,190 suicides in Sacramento County over a 58-year period showed no correlation to the phase of the moon. A 1992 paper by Martens, Kelly, and Saklofske reviewed twenty studies examining correlations between Moon phase and suicides. Most of the twenty studies found no correlation and the ones that did report positive results were inconsistent with each other.[6]
Psychiatrist Arnold Lieber of the University of Miami reported a correlation of homicides in Dade County to moon phase, but later analysis of the data — including that by astronomer George Abell — did not support Lieber's conclusions. Kelly, Rotton, and Culver point out that Lieber and Carolyn Sherin used inappropriate and misleading statistical procedures. When more appropriate tests were done, no correlation between homicides and the phase of the moon was found.
Astronomer Daniel Caton analyzed 70,000,000[7] birth records from the National Center for Health Statistics, and found no correlation between an increased birth rate and the full moon phase. Kelly, Rotton, and Culver report that Caton examined 45,000,000[citation needed] births and found a weak peak around the third quarter phase of the Moon, while the full moon and new moon phases had an average or slightly below average birth rate.
In 1959 Walter and Abraham Menaker reported that a study of over 510,000 births in New York City showed a 1 percent increase in births in the two weeks following the full moon. In 1967 Walter Menaker studied another 500,000 births in New York City, and found a 1 percent increase in births in the two-week period centered on the full moon. In 1973 M. Osley, D. Summerville, and L. B. Borst studied another 500,000 births in New York City, and they reported a 1 percent increase in births before the full moon. In 1957 Rippmann analyzed 9,551 births in Danville, PA and found no correlation between the birth rate and the phase of the moon.[8]
A fifteen month study in Jacksonville, Florida revealed no lunar effect on crime and hospital room admittance. In particular:
There was no increase in crime on full moons, according to a statistical analysis by the Jacksonville Police Department. Five of the fifteen full moons had a higher than average rate of crime while ten full moons had a lower than average rate. The higher-than-average days were during warmer months.
Statistical analysis of visits to Shands Hospital emergency room showed no full moon effect. Emergency room admissions may have more to do with the day of the week.[9]
Further research may provide further clarification on the lunar effect and what aspects of human behavior and physiology may or may not be affected.
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