Economist: EU klizi u recesiju, ruska privreda se oporavlja

[Casual Observer]

As Europe falls into recession, Russia climbs out​

Real-time data show a subdued but strengthening economy​

Oct 13th 2022
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These days Russians do not have much to boast about, so they take what they can get. Social-media trolls are posting videos, intended for European audiences, showing gas stoves left on full blast. What might cost hundreds of euros in Berlin comes to a few roubles in Moscow. The taunting is childish, but it hints at a deeper truth: the economic war between Russia and the West is at a delicate moment. While Europe teeters on the brink of recession, Russia is emerging from one.
Western sanctions, launched in response to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, have wounded Russia’s long-term prospects. Blocking the world’s ninth-largest economy from accessing foreign tech and expertise has cut its growth potential by as much as half, forecasts suggest. Output of oil and gas, the lifeblood of Russia’s economy, is about 3% lower than before the invasion and may fall further once European embargoes come into effect at the turn of the year. In the first six months of the war between 250,000 and 500,000 Russians fled the country, reckons Liam Peach of Capital Economics, a consultancy. Lots were highly educated and well paid.

https://www.economist.com/finance-a...europe-falls-into-recession-russia-climbs-out

 

[Casual Observer]

Dakle, veoma ozbiljan list kao što je Economist tvrdi da EU (Europe) klizi ka recesiji, a da se ruska privreda oporavlja. Takođe, jasno i glasno priznaje da se protiv RF vodi ekonomski rat.

Kako ovi faktori mogu da utiču na ishod sukoba u Ukrajini, i mnogo značajnije, kako to može da utiče na odnose na kontinentu.

 

[Kažu "strani plaćenik"]

Наставак текста:

Mr Putin’s recent decision to launch a partial mobilisation has dealt a further economic blow. It provoked a mini-bank run as people once again worried about the future of the country. By our estimates Russians pulled out $14bn-worth of rouble deposits in September, about a third as much as in February. Another 300,000 or so Russians have probably fled. A further reduction in the labour force is worsening worker shortages, compounding Russia’s inflation problem. Headline inflation is sharply down from its peak, but price pressure in the labour-intensive services sector is getting worse.

Despite these difficulties, the recession has probably now come to an end. Many people doubt official gdp data, but it is possible to get a sense of activity from a range of sources. Goldman Sachs, a bank, produces a “current-activity indicator”, which suggests how economies are doing from month to month. The data indicate that Russian activity is quite a bit livelier than it is in big European countries (see chart). A spending measure produced by Sberbank, another bank, wobbled following the mobilisation decree but has since edged back up. Output in the car industry, which a few months ago had practically fallen to zero, has also bounced back, suggesting that producers have managed to source supplies from outside the West. In dollar terms Russia’s monthly goods imports now almost certainly exceed last year’s average.

In its latest forecasts, published on October 11th, the imf upgraded Russia’s economic prospects for this year. In April it thought that Russian gdp would fall by 8.5%. It now expects a decline of 3.4%. This is nothing to gloat about, but it is manageable. Indeed, the economic data suggest that Russia will be able to keep fighting. In late September the government put out a draft budget for 2023 to 2025. According to Elina Ribakova of the Institute of International Finance, an industry group, the budget implies large increases in war-related spending in the coming years—particularly on internal “security”. Having avoided economic collapse, Mr Putin expects to double down, both abroad and at home.

 

[Battlecat]

Russia had planned to destabilize EU through weaponized fuel supplies, among other things. After a period of playing nice, comes a sudden turn and a slap in the face, following a couple of massacres.
These things've been known since the 90s and the Berlin wall collapse.
Majority of the decision makers chose to ignore it though. Now Germany and people depending on it such as Serbians (huge chunk of whom are living/working/receiving financial support) are paying the price for it.

Russia's simply the worst option for peace, stability and the quality of life.

 

[Casual Observer]

Наставак текста:

Mr Putin’s recent decision to launch a partial mobilisation has dealt a further economic blow. It provoked a mini-bank run as people once again worried about the future of the country. By our estimates Russians pulled out $14bn-worth of rouble deposits in September, about a third as much as in February. Another 300,000 or so Russians have probably fled. A further reduction in the labour force is worsening worker shortages, compounding Russia’s inflation problem. Headline inflation is sharply down from its peak, but price pressure in the labour-intensive services sector is getting worse.

Despite these difficulties, the recession has probably now come to an end. Many people doubt official gdp data, but it is possible to get a sense of activity from a range of sources. Goldman Sachs, a bank, produces a “current-activity indicator”, which suggests how economies are doing from month to month. The data indicate that Russian activity is quite a bit livelier than it is in big European countries (see chart). A spending measure produced by Sberbank, another bank, wobbled following the mobilisation decree but has since edged back up. Output in the car industry, which a few months ago had practically fallen to zero, has also bounced back, suggesting that producers have managed to source supplies from outside the West. In dollar terms Russia’s monthly goods imports now almost certainly exceed last year’s average.

In its latest forecasts, published on October 11th, the imf upgraded Russia’s economic prospects for this year. In April it thought that Russian gdp would fall by 8.5%. It now expects a decline of 3.4%. This is nothing to gloat about, but it is manageable. Indeed, the economic data suggest that Russia will be able to keep fighting. In late September the government put out a draft budget for 2023 to 2025. According to Elina Ribakova of the Institute of International Finance, an industry group, the budget implies large increases in war-related spending in the coming years—particularly on internal “security”. Having avoided economic collapse, Mr Putin expects to double down, both abroad and at home.

Hvala za kompletiranje teksta.

 

[Casual Observer]

Russia had planned to destabilize EU through weaponized fuel supplies, among other things. After a period of playing nice, comes a sudden turn and a slap in the face, following a couple of massacres.
These things've been known since the 90s and the Berlin wall collapse.
Majority of the decision makers chose to ignore it though. Now Germany and people depending on it such as Serbians (huge chunk of whom are living/working/receiving financial support) are paying the price for it.

Russia's simply the worst option for peace, stability and the quality of life.

Russia has weaponized fuel supply to EU? According to whom? According to those who have been using economic pressure against any dissent since the times unknown.

U.S has weaponized sanctions quite a bit time ago, do not forget.

Šta drugo očekivati nego kontra mere politici sankcija i uslovljavanja?

 

[Battlecat]

Russia has weaponized fuel supply to EU? According to whom? According to those who have been using economic pressure against any dissent since the times unknown.

U.S has weaponized sanctions quite a bit time ago, do not forget.

Šta drugo očekivati nego kontra mere politici sankcija i uslovljavanja?

Nah mate, west has been suppressing the Russian power projection for a reason.
They've had their own share of crap, but are certainly waaay better countries to live in than a freakin' Russian stuck in the 80s dictatorship bruh.
That's why heaps of Ruskies are immigrating to west, not the other way around mate.

 

[Casual Observer]

Nah mate, west has been suppressing the Russian power projection for a reason.
They've had their own share of crap, but are certainly waaay better countries to live in than a freakin' Russian stuck in the 80s dictatorship bruh.
That's why heaps of Ruskies are immigrating to west, not the other way around mate.

The only reason is perpetuating US world dominance. BTW, The West = U.S of A & Russia is not the main contender for the throne. China is.

 

[Casual Observer]

Nah mate, west has been suppressing the Russian power projection for a reason.
They've had their own share of crap, but are certainly waaay better countries to live in than a freakin' Russian stuck in the 80s dictatorship bruh.
That's why heaps of Ruskies are immigrating to west, not the other way around mate.

The only reason people migrate these days the is money - how do you explain Egyptians moving to absolute monarchy of Saudi Arabia?

 

[Beli Gibson]

Nah mate, west has been suppressing the Russian power projection for a reason.
They've had their own share of crap, but are certainly waaay better countries to live in than a freakin' Russian stuck in the 80s dictatorship bruh.
That's why heaps of Ruskies are immigrating to west, not the other way around mate.

Nađi mi tu "heaps of Ruskies" koji su emigrirali. Rusija je od 1991e do 2022e izgubila 1% svog stanovništva, u glavnom umrlih staraca.

 

[Beli Gibson]

****** Economist kaže jedno, a forumski stručnjaci se pokriju ušima i nastave da lupetaju
Nije rekao Maks, rekao je Economist

 

[Tvin Konza]

****** Economist kaže jedno, a forumski stručnjaci se pokriju ušima i nastave da lupetaju
Nije rekao Maks, rekao je Economist

Baci brojeve da vidimo

Očekivana GDP stopa rasta za Rusiju vs. za zemlje slobodnog sveta

 

[bas kao]

Russia's simply the worst option for peace, stability and the quality of life.

vojne alijanse kao nato obezbedjuju kvalitet zivota? otimanjem nafte, busenjem gasovoda, smenom rezima, kako?

 

[Beli Gibson]

Nađi mi tu "heaps of Ruskies" koji su emigrirali. Rusija je od 1991e do 2022e izgubila 1% svog stanovništva, u glavnom umrlih staraca.

still no answer

 

[Iskapa]

Dole ******!
Stavi Ukrajini!

 

[Tvin Konza]

Dole ******!
Stavi Ukrajini!

 

[buudala]

Baci brojeve da vidimo

Očekivana GDP stopa rasta za Rusiju vs. za zemlje slobodnog sveta

Slobodni ide ukurac krasni.
U prevodu, osto im traktor bez goriva

 

[ScipioAfricanus]

Pa kad udaris dno mozes samo gore, logicno.

 

[buudala]

Pa kad udaris dno mozes samo gore, logicno.

Spremaj se za udar

 

[ScipioAfricanus]

Spremaj se za udar

Evo sad cu.

 

[zx16]

Pa kad udaris dno mozes samo gore, logicno.

Кржљави, ти ћеш увек бити на дну!

 

[jolemisa]

As Europe falls into recession, Russia climbs out​

Real-time data show a subdued but strengthening economy​

Oct 13th 2022
Share
These days Russians do not have much to boast about, so they take what they can get. Social-media trolls are posting videos, intended for European audiences, showing gas stoves left on full blast. What might cost hundreds of euros in Berlin comes to a few roubles in Moscow. The taunting is childish, but it hints at a deeper truth: the economic war between Russia and the West is at a delicate moment. While Europe teeters on the brink of recession, Russia is emerging from one.
Western sanctions, launched in response to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, have wounded Russia’s long-term prospects. Blocking the world’s ninth-largest economy from accessing foreign tech and expertise has cut its growth potential by as much as half, forecasts suggest. Output of oil and gas, the lifeblood of Russia’s economy, is about 3% lower than before the invasion and may fall further once European embargoes come into effect at the turn of the year. In the first six months of the war between 250,000 and 500,000 Russians fled the country, reckons Liam Peach of Capital Economics, a consultancy. Lots were highly educated and well paid.

https://www.economist.com/finance-a...europe-falls-into-recession-russia-climbs-out

Eto kome sankcije idu uprilog,a i nas EU tera u propast.

 

[buudala]

Кржљави, ти ћеш увек бити на дну!

Bice valjda jagoda za beMzin

 

[Battlecat]

Russia has weaponized fuel supply to EU? According to whom? According to those who have been using economic pressure against any dissent since the times unknown.

U.S has weaponized sanctions quite a bit time ago, do not forget.

Šta drugo očekivati nego kontra mere politici sankcija i uslovljavanja?

Nah mate, west has been suppressing the Russian power projection for a reason.
They've had their own share of crap, but are certainly waaay better countries to live in than a freakin' Russian stuck in the 80s dictatorship bruh.
That's why heaps of Ruskies are immigrating to west, not the other way around mate.

still no answer

Nađi mi tu "heaps of Ruskies" koji su emigrirali. Rusija je od 1991e do 2022e izgubila 1% svog stanovništva, u glavnom umrlih staraca.

Uopšte nema masovnih naseobina i zajednica Rusa po zapadu a? Koliko ih samo ima po USA i DE?

Sigurno ne imigriraju u suprotnom smeru i prave zajednice tamo.

Rusija počiva na istoriji preko 28 miliona ubijenih u političkom progonu komunističke partije. Da ne govorimo o umrlima od gladi koju su nekoliko puta izazvali.

Praviš se nešto iznenađen tu kao da si živeo ispod kamena pa ne znaš rusku modernu istoriju. Evo sad samo koliko beže.
Bio sam u celim krajevima gde su mahom ruski imigranti.

Brojke možemo da tražimo, ali nije bitno u ovom kontekstu što je opšte znanje.

Retko gde po zapadu imaš ispod 50 ruskih državljana. Ne računajući one koji nisu. To je masovni talas jer beže ljudi u bolje.

Nemačka ima blizu 240 hiljada Rusa a oko 1.5 milion iz ex Sovjetskog saveza.

Rusija je pola Evrope dovela u jad i bedu i izazvala nuklearnu katastrofu Tako da njihovu vlast znamo super.

Amerika ima još više imigranata. Takođe je i zemlja sa najbrojnijom srpskom populacijom posle Srbije.

Svi iz tih istočnih sistema imigriraju gde mogu da žive pristojno.

Nađi mi tu "heaps of Ruskies" koji su emigrirali. Rusija je od 1991e do 2022e izgubila 1% svog stanovništva, u glavnom umrlih staraca.

 

[Beli Gibson]

Uopšte nema masovnih naseobina i zajednica Rusa po zapadu a? Koliko ih samo ima po USA i DE?

Sigurno ne imigriraju u suprotnom smeru i prave zajednice tamo.

Vidi, u New Yorku je "ruskojezična zajednica" u glavnom jevrejska u Brighton Beachu, a sad da vidimo statistiku za Nemačku

Sigurno nije poredivo sa srpskom emigracijom u Austriji koja sastoji od 300.000, jel?