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Би-Би-Си: пред пуцањем Источни фронт у Украјини
Четвртак, 21.11.2024. у 19:21
Украјински војници са топом (Фото EPA-EFE/MARIA SENOVILLA)
Источни фронт у Украјини могао би да пукне ако Русија задржи садашњи темпо офанзиве у зони борбених дејстава, јавља Би-Би-Си, позивајући се на стручњаке.
Према њиховим речима, одлука америчког председника Џозефа Бајдена да Украјини испоручи противпешадијске мине и дозволи ударе дубоко у Русију ракетама дугог домета такође је последица брзог темпа напредовања руских снага дуж линије фронта.
Вашингтонски институт за проучавање рата наглашава да се Русија „креће ка кључним логистичким чвориштима“ која се налазе на територији коју контролишу кијевске власти. Истовремено, према мишљењу експерата, украјински напад на Курску област за њу је постао „стратешка катастрофа“ због недостатка „људства“.У том контексту, војни експерт на Краљевском колеџу у Лондону, Марина Мирон, закључује да, ако се ситуација не промени у корист Кијева, фронт можда неће издржати офанзиву руских снага и „практично ће пући“.
Раније су се Оружане снаге Украјине жалиле на катастрофалан недостатак људи и муниције. Како је медијима рекао заменик команданта ракетних снага и артиљерије Оружаних снага Украјине Сергеј Мусијенко, украјинска војска никада није добила потребну количину артиљеријске муниције. Према његовим речима, Оружане снаге Украјине добијају „упола мање артиљеријске муниције због различитих фактора“, преноси Спутњик.
https://www.politika.rs/scc/clanak/645818/bi-bi-si-pred-pucanjem-istocni-front-u-ukrajini
Originalni članak:
President Biden’s decision to provide anti-personnel mines to Ukraine, and allow the use of long-range missiles on Russian territory comes as the Russian military is accelerating its gains along the front line.
Data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) shows that Russia has gained almost six times as much territory in 2024 as it did in 2023, and is advancing towards key Ukrainian logistical hubs in the eastern Donbas region.
Meanwhile, Ukraine's surprise incursion into Russia's Kursk region is faltering. Russian troops have pushed Kyiv's offensive backwards. Experts have questioned the success of the offensive, with one calling it a "strategic catastrophe" given manpower shortages faced by Ukraine.
These developments come at a time of heightened uncertainty with a second Donald Trump administration looming. The US president-elect has vowed to bring the war to a close when he takes office in January, with some fearing he could cut future military aid to Ukraine.
Russia advances in eastern Ukraine
In the first few months of the war the front line moved quickly, with Russia gaining ground quickly before being pushed back by a Ukrainian counteroffensive. But in 2023 neither side made any major gains - with the conflict largely sliding into a stalemate.But new ISW figures suggest the story in 2024 is more favourable for Russia. The ISW bases its analysis on confirmed social media footage and reports of troop movements.
The ISW data shows Moscow’s forces have seized around 2,700 sq km of Ukrainian territory so far this year, compared with just 465 sq km in the whole of 2023, a near six-fold increase.
Dr Marina Miron, a defence researcher at Kings College London, suggested to the BBC that there was a possibility the Ukrainian eastern front “might actually collapse” if Russia continued to advance at pace.
More than 1000 sq km was taken between 1 September and 3 November, suggesting the push accelerated in recent months. Two areas bearing the brunt of these advances are Kupiansk in Kharkiv region, and Kurakhove, a stepping stone to the key logistical hub of Pokrovsk in Donetsk region.
The ISW suggests that Russian forces have steadily advanced in eastern Ukraine.
Kupiansk and areas to the east of the Oskil river were liberated in the Kharkiv offensive of 2022, but Russia has progressively retaken the latter area. In a recent intelligence update, the UK's Ministry of Defence said Russian forces were trying to breach the north-eastern outskirts of the city.
Footage posted on 13 November but not independently verified is somehow consistent with this analysis. The video shows a convoy of Russian armour being attacked but not stopped after making it to within 4km of the key bridge at Kupiansk, the last major road crossing in the area.
While these reports do not necessarily translate to control of an area, it is indicative of how stretched Ukraine’s defensive line has become.
Elsewhere, since retaking the city of Vuhledar in October - an elevated position which sits above key supply lines and which Moscow spent two years fighting for - Russia has thrown resources at Kurakhove.
Ukraine’s forces defending the city have so far unsuccessfully struggled to repelled attacks to the south and east. But the front line creeps ever closer, with Russia also threatening to encircle defenders from the north and west.
Col Yevgeny Sasyko, a former head of strategic communications with Ukraine’s general staff, said Russia places “powerful jaws” around the flanks of a city that slowly “grind though” defences until they collapse.
Footage from the city verified by the BBC showed massive destruction, with residential buildings heavily damaged.
The ISW concludes Moscow now holds a total of 110,649 sq km in Ukraine. For comparison, Ukrainian forces seized just over 1,171 sq km in the first month of its incursion into Kursk - though Russian forces have now retaken at least two thirds or even more of that territory.
- Biden agrees to give Ukraine anti-personnel mines
- What we know about missile system Ukraine has used to strike Russia
- What arms are the US, UK and other nations supplying?
An analysis carried out by BBC Russian confirmed that at least 78,329 troops have been killed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, with Moscow’s losses from September to November this year more than one-and-a-half times greater than the same period in 2023.
The losses are compounded by the “meat grinder” approach said to be favoured by Russian commanders - describing the waves of recruits thrown towards Ukrainian positions in a bid to exhaust troops.
Despite the Russian advances, some experts have noted that the actual speed of the offensive is still slow. David Handelman, a military analyst, suggested Ukrainian troops in the east were slowly withdrawing to preserve manpower and resources, rather than suffering from a broader collapse.
The Kursk gambit
Ukraine launched its shock incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in August. It is unclear why Russia took so long to respond to the operation, which saw Kyiv’s troops quickly gain control over a number of border communities.Dr Miron suggested that while the Kremlin would suffer a domestic political cost for as long as the incursion continued, Russia’s general staff had been keen to keep Ukraine’s forces tied down in Kursk as its forces made gains elsewhere along the front line.
But Moscow is now clearly intent on reclaiming the territory lost on its own soil. Some 50,000 troops have been deployed to the region, versus roughly the same number of Ukrainians.
Verified videos from the Kursk region show fierce fighting is taking place - and that Russia is suffering some losses in terms of manpower and equipment. But the data clearly shows Ukraine’s control of the region is shrinking.
Since the start of October, Russian counter-attacks have regained at least 593 sq km worth of territory in the border region, ISW figures showed.
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https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn0dpdx420lo
Jedino otvoreno pitanje je koliko će stanovnika biti na teritoriji Ukrajine kada se dim bude slegao, sve ostalo je više manje jasno.
