Prestizni americki Foreign Policy objavljuje prognozu
profesora Roberta Fogela, doktora ekonomije
dobitnika nobelove nagrade za ekonomiju,
direktora Centra za populacionu ekonomiju University of Chicago Booth School of Business
$123,000,000,000,000*
Link (I strana; clanak ima 4 strane):
www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/01/04/123000000000000?page=0,0
Europeans, of course, won't be eating grass in 2040. Their economic decline over the next 30 years will be relative, not absolute, as technological advances and other factors should allow Europe's overall labor productivity to continue to grow about 1.8 percent annually. Yet their percentage contribution to global GDP will tumble, shrinking by a factor of four, from 21 percent to 5 percent, in a generation.
Evropljani, svakako nece pasti travu u 2040-oj.
Njihov ekonomski pad u sledecih 30 godina ce biti relativan, ne apsolutan, posto tehnoloski napredak i drugi faktori treba da dozvole Evropi da ukupna radna produktivnost nastavi da raste oko 1,8% godisnje.
Jos njihov doprinos svetskom bruto proizvodu ce se skortrljati, padajuci za faktor 4, od 21 posto do 5%, za generaciju.
Ako ucesce cele Evrope u svetskom prihodu bude samo 5% jasno je da ce Evropa u svetskim relacijama postati skoro beznacajna, jos uporedite to sa kineskih grandioznih 40% koliko ovaj cuveni americki profesor nobelovac predvidja.
Zanimljiv je i jedan od uzroka evropskog pada kako smatra ovaj cuveni profesor i nobelovac.
Demography is the first key issue. The population of Western European countries has been aging rapidly, and that is likely to continue over the next several decades. The basic reason: European couples aren't producing enough babies. Europe's total fertility rate has been below the level needed to replace the population for about 34 years, according to a 2005 Rand Corp. study. As a result, the percentage of women of childbearing age will decline, in the earliest 15 EU countries, from about 50 percent in 2000 (it was also about 50 percent in 1950) to the U.N. projection of about 35 percent in 2040. So we have a double whammy: Not only will reproductive-age women have sharply reduced fertility rates, but the proportion of women who are in their childbearing years will also have declined sharply. By 2040, almost a third of Western Europe's population may be over age 65.
Demografija je prvi kljucni problem. Populacija zapadnoevropskih zemalja ostro pada, i to se verovatno nastavlja tokom iducih nekoliko decenija. Osnovni razlog: evropski parovi ne zele da radjaju dovoljno dece. Evropska ukupna stopa fertiliteta je ispod nivoa da se zameni populacija za oko 34 godine, saglasno studiji Rand Corp. Kao rezultat, procenat zena u u periodu kada mogu da zatrudne ce opasti, u 15 najranijih EU zemalja, od 50% u 2000-oj do projekcija U.N. oko 35% u 2040-oj. Tako mi imamo duplo pogorsanje: ne samo da ce zene u reproduktivnom dobu znatno redukovati stopu fertiliteta, vec ce i proprocija zena koje su u njihovim godinama kada mogu zatrudneti ce ostro opasti. U 2040-oj, skoro trecina populacije Zapadne Evrope moze biti preko 65 godina.
profesora Roberta Fogela, doktora ekonomije
dobitnika nobelove nagrade za ekonomiju,
direktora Centra za populacionu ekonomiju University of Chicago Booth School of Business
$123,000,000,000,000*
Link (I strana; clanak ima 4 strane):
www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/01/04/123000000000000?page=0,0
Europeans, of course, won't be eating grass in 2040. Their economic decline over the next 30 years will be relative, not absolute, as technological advances and other factors should allow Europe's overall labor productivity to continue to grow about 1.8 percent annually. Yet their percentage contribution to global GDP will tumble, shrinking by a factor of four, from 21 percent to 5 percent, in a generation.
Evropljani, svakako nece pasti travu u 2040-oj.
Njihov ekonomski pad u sledecih 30 godina ce biti relativan, ne apsolutan, posto tehnoloski napredak i drugi faktori treba da dozvole Evropi da ukupna radna produktivnost nastavi da raste oko 1,8% godisnje.
Jos njihov doprinos svetskom bruto proizvodu ce se skortrljati, padajuci za faktor 4, od 21 posto do 5%, za generaciju.
Ako ucesce cele Evrope u svetskom prihodu bude samo 5% jasno je da ce Evropa u svetskim relacijama postati skoro beznacajna, jos uporedite to sa kineskih grandioznih 40% koliko ovaj cuveni americki profesor nobelovac predvidja.
Zanimljiv je i jedan od uzroka evropskog pada kako smatra ovaj cuveni profesor i nobelovac.
Demography is the first key issue. The population of Western European countries has been aging rapidly, and that is likely to continue over the next several decades. The basic reason: European couples aren't producing enough babies. Europe's total fertility rate has been below the level needed to replace the population for about 34 years, according to a 2005 Rand Corp. study. As a result, the percentage of women of childbearing age will decline, in the earliest 15 EU countries, from about 50 percent in 2000 (it was also about 50 percent in 1950) to the U.N. projection of about 35 percent in 2040. So we have a double whammy: Not only will reproductive-age women have sharply reduced fertility rates, but the proportion of women who are in their childbearing years will also have declined sharply. By 2040, almost a third of Western Europe's population may be over age 65.
Demografija je prvi kljucni problem. Populacija zapadnoevropskih zemalja ostro pada, i to se verovatno nastavlja tokom iducih nekoliko decenija. Osnovni razlog: evropski parovi ne zele da radjaju dovoljno dece. Evropska ukupna stopa fertiliteta je ispod nivoa da se zameni populacija za oko 34 godine, saglasno studiji Rand Corp. Kao rezultat, procenat zena u u periodu kada mogu da zatrudne ce opasti, u 15 najranijih EU zemalja, od 50% u 2000-oj do projekcija U.N. oko 35% u 2040-oj. Tako mi imamo duplo pogorsanje: ne samo da ce zene u reproduktivnom dobu znatno redukovati stopu fertiliteta, vec ce i proprocija zena koje su u njihovim godinama kada mogu zatrudneti ce ostro opasti. U 2040-oj, skoro trecina populacije Zapadne Evrope moze biti preko 65 godina.