Cena nafte
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  1. #1
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    Podrazumevano Cena nafte

    Mozhe li neko da mi objasni(a i prevede) ovo oznacheno crvenim. Tekst mi je privukao pazhnju zbog ovog oznachenog plavom bojom. Zbog toga nisam prihvatao objashnjenje da je nagli pad cene nafte izazvan samo svetskom krizom, a nije mi bilo jasan ni nagli skok cene nafte koji mu je prethodio.

    It took only 5 months for the price of oil to plummet from $150 to under $40 in the second part of the year. Meanwhile oil consumption did not even decrease 10%, so what is the real cause of this collapse you may ask?
    Hedge funds. Let me explain.

    Oil Hedge Funds
    During the first part of 2008, Western economies were already slowing down noticeably and hedge funds gradually pulled trillions of dollars out of the market and parked them in energy ETFs. At the time Chindia's insatiable thirst for oil and the "decoupling" of east/west economies had many believe commodities were a "sure thing", a sound enough tangible insurance to protect overinflated assets scavenged from made-up bubbles. On top of that, by using leverage, profits were multiplied as oil went up, not a bad deal in a recession.
    But when the banking industry collapsed, hedge funds had to raise cash by "deleveraging", liquidating their leveraged energy ETF positions sending the price of oil tumbling. Anecdotally shorting of banking ETFs was suspended by the US Securities Commission during that time but not shorting of energy prices, and the leverage mania soon found an escape route in utrashort oil ETFs, compounding the speed of this downward spiral. By December 2008 the oil price had collapsed 75% and frankly, who would complain about cheap gas these days?
    As we enter 2009 the oil landscape has reversed dramatically from a year ago. The price of oil is lower than production costs and new exploration projects are being cancelled. China flush with cash is currently buying all the oil it can get its hands on to pump into its strategic reserves. Once arrogant OPEC countries are willing to sell oil at any price to fund government programs and prevent political instability.
    One constant however is the depletion of major oil fields, worse than predicted at 9.1% year over year as we close 2008. It's a matter of when not if the economy recovers and when it does, expect a strong bounce back in the price of oil.

    Shta znache ovi fondovi?
    Poslednji put ažurirao/la Bara Kob Ama : 30.01.2009. u 19:38



  2. #2
    Iskusan Srborus (avatar)
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    Podrazumevano Re: Cena nafte

    ETF-ovi su Exchange Traded Funds - mnogo su noviji nego mutual funds-ovi i hedge funds-ovi, prvi i najstariji ETF se pojavio 1993. bio je to SPY koji prati indeks S&P500, poznati su jos i recimo QQQQ koji prati indeks NASDAQ100 ili DIA koji prati indeks Dow Jones ili recimo commodity ETF-ovi kao sto su reciimo GLD koji prati cenu zlata ili SLV koji prati cenu srebra. Ili recimo RSX koji prati ruski market. Ima ih zilion ziliona.

  3. #3
    Iskusan Srborus (avatar)
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    Podrazumevano Re: Cena nafte

    Short selling znaci kada cene akcija i EFT-ova padaju tada hedz fondovi profitiraju. Kada je bankrotirao Lehman Borthers u septembru 2008. SEC je banovao short selling ali izgleda ne i za commoditty ETF-ove, eto to nisam znao uopste, hmmmmm.

  4. #4
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    Citat Original postavio Srborus Pogledaj poruku
    Short selling znaci kada cene akcija i EFT-ova padaju tada hedz fondovi profitiraju. Kada je bankrotirao Lehman Borthers u septembru 2008. SEC je banovao short selling ali izgleda ne i za commoditty ETF-ove, eto to nisam znao uopste, hmmmmm.
    Hvala, ali ako mozhe prostije, molim te. Sad nisam siguran ni u ono malo shto sam mislio da znam u vezi ovoga.

  5. #5
    Iskusan Srborus (avatar)
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    Citat Original postavio Ugo Chavez Pogledaj poruku
    Hvala, ali ako mozhe prostije, molim te. Sad nisam siguran ni u ono malo shto sam mislio da znam u vezi ovoga.
    Ovo nema nikakve veze sa politikom ali ajde:
    ovo ti je najstariji ETF u svetu, simbol je SPY

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SPY#symbol=SPY;range=my

    prvo ti treba onaj fles plug in, pa onda kliknes gore na "COMPARE" i otkacis kvadratic "S&P500" i videces da su plava i crvena linija gotovo skroz iste, znaci SPY prati indeks S&P 500 od '93 godine do danas, S&P500 to je 500 najvecih americkih kompanija

    A ovo je meni najbolji ETF, GLD prati cenu zlata, ima nekoliko stotina tona zlata:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GLD

    I postoje razlicite vrste ETF-ova:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exchange-traded_fund

    Obrati paznju na odeljak 4 (Types of ETFs) i pododeljak 4.2 (Commodity ETFs)
    Commodities to su energenti (nafta, gas) i metali (zlato, srebro, bakar, aluminijum,...)
    A short selling je profitiranje na padu cena akcija, bilo je dozvoljeno do septembra prosle godine
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_Selling
    A to hedging, strategije, put-call, short-long,... to bas ni ja nista ne razumem, suvise komplikovano za moj mozak.

  6. #6
    Iskusan Srborus (avatar)
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    Podrazumevano Re: Cena nafte

    I ovo mi je odlican ruski ETF

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RSX

    Net Assets²: 402.49M - neto vrednost imovine je 402,5 miliona dolara.
    I kliknes sa leve strane na "Holdings" i vidis u sta je ulozen novac: Gazpromneft (NARAVNO!!! ), Gazprom EDR (na Londonskoj berzi), Lukoil, 2 ruska mobilna operatera VIP i MBT i dve banke Sberbank i VTBank i tako dalje.

  7. #7
    Iskusan Srborus (avatar)
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    Podrazumevano Re: Cena nafte

    Eto recimo GLD je mozda najpoznatiji commodity ETF, a recimo jedan od najpoznatijih indeksnih ETF-ova pored SPY je recimo QQQQ i prati NASDAQ-100 indeks - to je 100 najvecih americkih kompanija iz tehnoloskog sektora (proizvodjaci hardvera i softvera) i internet sektora, recimo Yahoo, Google, Apple, Microsoft, nVidia, Adobe, Intel, Dell, eBay,...

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=QQQQ

    Recimo taj ETF ima net assets 12,5 milijardi$.

  8. #8
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    Podrazumevano Re: Cena nafte

    Opet pada:
    $37.46.

  9. #9
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    Podrazumevano Re: Cena nafte

    Cena ruske nafte ne pada, ruski 'derivates market' se zove FORTS, evo ga sajt: ('commodities' su tabela skroz dole)

    http://www.rts.ru/en/forts/

    BR-2.09 45.15
    UR-2.09 46.30

    Znaci cena nafte je oko 45-46 dolara po barelu.
    A cena zlata je 930 dolara po unci, a cena srebra 13 dolara po unci.

  10. #10
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    Podrazumevano Re: Cena nafte

    Citat Original postavio Ugo Chavez Pogledaj poruku
    Mozhe li neko da mi objasni(a i prevede) ovo oznacheno crvenim. Tekst mi je privukao pazhnju zbog ovog oznachenog plavom bojom. Zbog toga nisam prihvatao objashnjenje da je nagli pad cene nafte izazvan samo svetskom krizom, a nije mi bilo jasan ni nagli skok cene nafte koji mu je prethodio.

    It took only 5 months for the price of oil to plummet from $150 to under $40 in the second part of the year. Meanwhile oil consumption did not even decrease 10%, so what is the real cause of this collapse you may ask?
    Hedge funds. Let me explain.

    Oil Hedge Funds
    During the first part of 2008, Western economies were already slowing down noticeably and hedge funds gradually pulled trillions of dollars out of the market and parked them in energy ETFs. At the time Chindia's insatiable thirst for oil and the "decoupling" of east/west economies had many believe commodities were a "sure thing", a sound enough tangible insurance to protect overinflated assets scavenged from made-up bubbles. On top of that, by using leverage, profits were multiplied as oil went up, not a bad deal in a recession.
    But when the banking industry collapsed, hedge funds had to raise cash by "deleveraging", liquidating their leveraged energy ETF positions sending the price of oil tumbling. Anecdotally shorting of banking ETFs was suspended by the US Securities Commission during that time but not shorting of energy prices, and the leverage mania soon found an escape route in utrashort oil ETFs, compounding the speed of this downward spiral. By December 2008 the oil price had collapsed 75% and frankly, who would complain about cheap gas these days?
    As we enter 2009 the oil landscape has reversed dramatically from a year ago. The price of oil is lower than production costs and new exploration projects are being cancelled. China flush with cash is currently buying all the oil it can get its hands on to pump into its strategic reserves. Once arrogant OPEC countries are willing to sell oil at any price to fund government programs and prevent political instability.
    One constant however is the depletion of major oil fields, worse than predicted at 9.1% year over year as we close 2008. It's a matter of when not if the economy recovers and when it does, expect a strong bounce back in the price of oil.

    Shta znache ovi fondovi?
    Što izigravaš frajera ako ne znaš o čemu pišeš nemoj ni da pišeš.
    Čedina Zebra

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