Putinova strategija na Balkanu i Bliskom Istoku..
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Tema: Putinova strategija na Balkanu i Bliskom Istoku..

  1. #1
    Domaćin
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    Podrazumevano Putinova strategija na Balkanu i Bliskom Istoku..

    Hoce li se Putin prikljuciti Cavezu i Iranu..
    Americki analiticar iz Conservative Voice-tvrdi Ne..
    Putin uvidja da je USa izgubila rat u Iraku i da je podrska Albancima na Kosovu pogreska..
    Autor tvrdi da ce Irak opstati kao drzava i da ce Kosovo biti dio Srbije i da Ce Rusija i USA sacuvati liberalni svet koji je nastao posle drugog svetskog rata..

    The short answer is no. Putin is not joining Chavez and Iran in their Brownshirt/SA Axis and never will. To put the question in informal language -- Is Russia going Fascist? No, Russia is not going Fascist. The post-WW II liberal international order is safe despite the damage being done by Hugo Chavez and Mahoud Ahmadinejad (see "Chavez is Losing Russia and China," petroleumworld.com).

    The world will know if Russia is going Fascist because when that happens Putin will be making anti-US speeches from Tehran and Caracas. Instead, this week, Putin is making a high profile visit to the Arab states of the Middle East including Saudi Arabia. This follows Putin's consultations last month with President Assad of Syria and President Siniora of Lebanon.

    What is the Putin Middle East strategy? Putin sees the US's current pro-Iran, pro-Kurdistan approach in Iraq as a mistake, similar to US support for the Kosovo Albanians in Serbia. Putin sees US policy on Iraq as a failure that creates a Russian opportunity for three reasons.

    First, the Iranian-Kurdish coalition will fail to stabilize Iraq. Most Sunnis and Shi'a oppose Iran and Kurdistan and will resist the Iranian-US occupation.

    Second, this pro-Iran, pro-Kurdistan approach from the US is alienating the entire Arab world, beginning with Turkey (a NATO member!) from the US.

    Third, and most importantly, by supporting Iran and Kurdistan in Iraq, the US has joined the losing side.

    In short, Putin is positioning Russia to take advantage from the inevitable US defeat in Iraq. Putin, in consultations with Syria and Saudi Arabia, is bulding a "Plan B" for the Middle East. Putin's plan will part ways with the US plan because it will focus on preserving the Iraqi state, whereas US policy wants to dismantle the Iraqi state and break up Iraq into separate ethnic enclaves.

    As noted above, the US has already realized it made a mistake in Serbia, by supporting Kosovo. The US is now doing what it can to slow Kosovo's emergence as an independent state (see Austin Bay op-ed on Kosovo's Final Status negotiations).

    Putin is gambling that the US will soon see the error of its ways in Iraq and will delay Kurdistan's independence, just as the US delays Kosovo independence. This is because Kurdistan's annexation of Kirkuk and its oil wealth is a non-starter due to overwhelming opposition from Turkey and the Arab states. Without Kirkuk, Kurdistan will not be a viable state.

    If Kurdistan fails to take Kirkuk, and the US withdraws support from the Iran-Kurdistan alliance in Iraq, the world will then speak of the Bush-Putin Axis instead of the Chavez-Iran Axis, as they do today. The Bush-Putin Axis would be in a commanding position in the Middle East, due to Arab states' support. With China lined up as a partner, US influence in the Pacific Rim would be assured, as would US influence in Latin America. The Chavez-Ahmadinejad clown show would be over, and not a day too soon, thanks to President Putin, and despite President Bush.



  2. #2
    Iron Lord nije na forumu
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    Elita Iron Lord (avatar)
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    Podrazumevano Re: Putinova strategija na Balkanu i Bliskom Istoku..

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