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Croatia, Serbia: The Western Incentives Dilemma
October 24, 2006 20 07 GMT
Summary
The United States said it will push for Croatia to be admitted to NATO in 2008. Meanwhile, the United Nations signaled it will delay a decision on independence from Kosovo until after Serbian elections, to allow Belgrade the stability needed to join the European Union. These events, which are part of a move by the West to offer Balkan countries incentives to democratize, highlight problems with encouraging longtime rivals Croatia and Serbia both to join NATO and the European Union.
Analysis
After an Oct. 17 meeting with Croatian Prime Minister Ivo Sanader, U.S. President George W. Bush said the United States will push for Croatia to be admitted to NATO by 2008. Two days later, the United Nations announced it had extended the mandate of its envoy to Kosovo, Martti Ahtisaari, until June 2007, effectively signaling that the international body will not rule on Kosovo's independence until after Serbia's parliamentary elections.
With U.S. support, Croatia will surely be admitted to NATO. And the postponement of a U.N. decision on Kosovo will allow Serbia to work to sustain its democracy and hopes of NATO EU membership. Both developments clearly signal that the West will offer significant incentives to keep the two states on the path to Western integration. Croatian membership in NATO will be problematic, however, since NATO and the European Union are also considering Serbia's membership request.
If Croatia joins NATO, it can dictate the terms of any attempt by Serbia to secure membership itself via Croatia's veto power in the Atlantic alliance, effectively binding NATO to a pro-Croatian position on regional issues and leaving Serbia at Croatia's mercy. Thus, Croatian accession will only complicate matters in the Balkans by ending any attempt by NATO to act as a neutral party in the region.
For Serbia, Croatian membership in NATO represents a threat, something that will shape politics in Belgrade. If Serbian radicals win upcoming parliamentary elections, the Serbian government will become hostile toward a NATO that has embraced Croatia. If on the other hand pro-Western political parties win, they will try to push for Serbia's accession to NATO and the European Union. In that case, Serbia will have to cuddle up to Croatia, since its neighbor could veto Serbian NATO membership. But if Croatia allows its longtime adversary to join the military alliance, it will only be under the harshest of terms, showing how even the best of Western intentions can founder on the complex shoals of Balkan politics.
