Američki veteran o mogućem scenariju za Iran (pomalo naivno)

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The war began as planned. The Israeli pilots took off well before dawn and streaked across Lebanon and northern Iraq, high above Kirkuk. Flying US-made F-15 and F-16s, the Israelis separated over the mountains of western Iran, the pilots gesturing a last minute show of confidence in their mission, maintaining radio silence.

Just before the sun rose over Tehran, moments before the Muslim call to prayer, the missiles struck their targets. While US Air Force AWACS planes circled overhead--listening, watching, recording--heavy US bombers followed minutes later. Bunker-busters and mini-nukes fell on dozens of targets while Iranian anti-aircraft missiles sped skyward.

The ironically named Bushehr nuclear power plant crumbled to dust. Russian technicians and foreign nationals scurried for safety. Most did not make it.

Targets in Saghand and Yazd, all of them carefully chosen many months before by Pentagon planners, were destroyed. The uranium enrichment facility in Natanz; a heavy water plant and radioisotope facility in Arak; the Ardekan Nuclear Fuel Unit; the Uranium Conversion Facility and Nuclear Technology Center in Isfahan; were struck simultaneously by USAF and Israeli bomber groups.

The Tehran Nuclear Research Center, the Tehran Molybdenum, Iodine and Xenon Radioisotope Production Facility, the Tehran Jabr Ibn Hayan Multipurpose Laboratories, the Kalaye Electric Company in the Tehran suburbs were destroyed.

Iranian fighter jets rose in scattered groups. At least those Iranian fighter planes that had not been destroyed on the ground by swift and systematic air strikes from US and Israeli missiles. A few Iranian fighters even launched missiles, downing the occasional attacker, but American top guns quickly prevailed in the ensuing dogfights.

The Iranian air force, like the Iranian navy, never really knew what hit them. Like the slumbering US sailors at Pearl Harbor, the pre-dawn, pre-emptive attack wiped out fully half the Iranian defense forces in a matter of hours.

By mid-morning, the second and third wave of US/Israeli raiders screamed over the secondary targets. The only problem now, the surprising effectiveness of the Iranian missile defenses. The element of surprise lost, US and Israeli warplanes began to fall from the skies in considerable numbers to anti-aircraft fire.

At 7:35 AM, Tehran time, the first Iranian anti-ship missile destroyed a Panamanian oil tanker, departing from Kuwait and bound for Houston. Launched from an Iranian fighter plane, the Exocet split the ship in half and set the ship ablaze in the Strait of Hormuz. A second and third tanker followed, black smoke billowing from the broken ships before they blew up and sank. By 8:15 AM, all ship traffic on the Persian Gulf had ceased.

US Navy ships, ordered earlier into the relative safety of the Indian Ocean, south of their base in Bahrain, launched counter strikes. Waves of US fighter planes circled the burning wrecks in the bottleneck of Hormuz but the Iranian fighters had fled.

At 9 AM, Eastern Standard Time, many hours into the war, CNN reported a squadron of suicide Iranian fighter jets attacking the US Navy fleet south of Bahrain. Embedded reporters aboard the ships--sending live feeds directly to a rapt audience of Americans just awakening--reported all of the Iranian jets destroyed, but not before the enemy planes launched dozens of Exocet and Sunburn anti-ship missiles. A US aircraft carrier, cruiser and two destroyers suffered direct hits. The cruiser blew up and sank, killing 600 men. The aircraft carrier sank an hour later.

By mid-morning, every military base in Iran was partially or wholly destroyed. Sirens blared and fires blazed from hundreds of fires. Explosions rocked Tehran and the electrical power failed. The Al Jazeerah news station in Tehran took a direct hit from a satellite bomb, leveling the entire block.

At 9:15 AM, Baghdad time, the first Iranian missile struck the Green Zone. For the next thirty minutes a torrent of missiles landed on GPS coordinates carefully selected by Shiite militiamen with cell phones positioned outside the Green Zone and other permanent US bases. Although US and Israeli bomber pilots had destroyed 90% of the Iranian missiles, enough Shahabs remained to fully destroy the Green Zone, the Baghdad airport, and a US Marine base. Thousands of unsuspecting US soldiers died in the early morning barrage. Not surprisingly, CNN and Fox withheld the great number of casualties from American viewers.

By 9:30 AM, gas stations on the US east coast began to raise their prices. Slowly at first and then altogether in a panic, the prices rose. $4 a gallon, and then $5 and then $6, the prices skyrocketed. Worried motorists, rushing from work, roared into the nearest gas station, radios blaring the latest reports of the pre-emptive attack on Iran. While fistfights broke out in gas stations everywhere, the third Middle Eastern war had begun.

In Washington DC, the spin began minutes after the first missile struck its intended target. The punitive strike--not really a war said the harried White House spokesman--would further democracy and peace in the Middle East. Media pundits mostly followed the party line. By ridding Iran of weapons of mass destruction, Donald Rumsfeld declared confidently on CNN, Iran might follow in the footsteps of Iraq, and enjoy the hard won fruits of freedom.

The president scheduled a speech at 2 PM. Gas prices rose another two dollars before then. China and Japan threatened to dump US dollars. Gold rose $120 an ounce. The dollar plummeted against the Euro.

CNN reported violent, anti-American protests in Paris, London, Rome, Berlin and Dublin. Fast food franchises throughout Europe, carrying American corporate logos, were firebombed.

A violent coup toppled the pro-American Pakistan president. On the New York Stock Exchange, prices fell in a frenzy of trading--except for the major petroleum producers. A single, Iranian Shahab missile struck Tel Aviv, destroying an entire city block. Israel vowed revenge, and threatened a nuclear strike on Tehran, before a hastily called UN General Assembly in New York City eased tensions.

An orange alert in New York City suddenly reddened to a full-scale terror alarm when a package detonated on a Manhattan subway. Mayor Bloomberg declared martial law. Governor Pataki ordered the New York National Guard fully mobilized, mobilizing what few national guardsmen remained in the state.

President Bush looked shaken at 2 PM. The scroll below the TV screen reported Persian Gulf nations halting production of oil until the conflict could be resolved peacefully. Venezuelan president, Hugo Chavez, announced a freeze in oil deliveries to the US would begin immediately. Tony Blair offered to mediate peace negotiations, between the US and Israel and Iran, but was resoundingly rejected.

By 6 PM, Eastern Standard Time, gas prices had stabilized at just below $10 a gallon. A Citgo station in Texas, near Fort Sam Houston Army base, was firebombed. No one claimed responsibility. Terrorism was not ruled out.

At sunset, the call to prayer--in Tehran, Baghdad, Islamabad, Ankara, Jerusalem, Jakarta, Riyadh--sounded uncannily like the buzzing of enraged bees.
 
pročitaj William F. Engdahl: Stoljeće rata Onda, "Doktrine nuklearnik velesila"(nemogu se sjetit autora ali u izdanju iz osamdesetih ona serija ratnih izvještaja i slika, svaka knjižnica ih ima.
onda"arapsko izraelski ratovi"... pa "iračko-iranski rat"
evo za početak će ti biti bitno jasnije tko kako igra na bliskom istoku.
ima još ali se ne mogu sjetit točnog naziva a još mnaje autora... ali uskoro dobiješ.
ali uglavnom , ovo zapamti pa se javi ako ne budem u pravu.
1.neće biti nikakve vojne agresije dok su amerikanci u iraku.
2. požurivanje sa izlaskom iz iraka je znak da su u toku skore pripreme za napad na iran.
3. napad, ako ga bude, ići će na uništenje postrojenje za razvoj nuklearnih potencijala. i ograničenog djelovanja po zapovijednim strukturama i pzo-u.
4. napad nije tako skor u bliskoj budućnosti.
5. i dalje će se ići na destrukciju iraka i to na taj načina da će se podržavati jedna skupina a istodobno odobravati naoružanje druge skupine.
6. kurdi neće dobiti potpuno neovisnu državu.
 
Ja verujem da svi grešimo-ovih 20000 i kusur vojnika nisu namenjeni Iraku, jeste da je glup, ali je sigurno već i Bušu jasno da je taj rat izgubljen. Mogu eventualno sa marionetskom vladom da sklope pakt o izvozu 75% nafte u SAD/V.Britaniju, kao što je rekao Kisindžer. Izrael i Ameri će zajedno ići na Iran i to prilično skoro... Ako mene pitate.
 
THE_GLAWAT:
Prema nekim izvorima Izrael već pravi planove za vazdušne napade na Iranska nuklearna postrojenja.A ja se kladim da čim Jevreji krenu krenuće i Ameri.
Чим крену Амери крећу и Енглези, па Французи, па Немци, па сви живи, па Руси, па Кинези, па, Индијци, па рокни све ICBM па одосмо сви у...
 
Ako i doje do nuklearnog napada, bit ce to izolirani napadi na iranska n.postrojenja, na verujem da ce sukob da se prosiri u nesto vece, takav utisak imam, kratki ciljani vazdusni napadi, pa ako iran odluci da napadne svim sredstvima izrael, ovi ce skupa sa amerima spremno da ih cekaju. Sto se tice rusa i kineza, tu je sve moguce, ali verujem da ce pre bilo kakve akcije, ameri pokusati izvuci neku prihvatljivu reakciju od njih. Sta ako je sve vec dogovoreno, a mi na tv samo gledamo dobro pripremljenu predstavu?
 
hektorius:
Ako i doje do nuklearnog napada, bit ce to izolirani napadi na iranska n.postrojenja, na verujem da ce sukob da se prosiri u nesto vece, takav utisak imam, kratki ciljani vazdusni napadi, pa ako iran odluci da napadne svim sredstvima izrael, ovi ce skupa sa amerima spremno da ih cekaju. Sto se tice rusa i kineza, tu je sve moguce, ali verujem da ce pre bilo kakve akcije, ameri pokusati izvuci neku prihvatljivu reakciju od njih. Sta ako je sve vec dogovoreno, a mi na tv samo gledamo dobro pripremljenu predstavu?
e onda najvaznije da zauzemo najbolja mesta
 
Ne bih da slutim zlu, narocito nesto da preindiciram, a ponajvise da provociram Urosa, sa kim se letos usijala jedna tema na “Istoriji”, ali evo sta bi mogle da budu neke mogucnosti u tom ratu, ne govoreci uopste o eventualnim pobednicima u bilo kom ratu, koliki god da on bude... Samo bih jos da napomenem da se svi istoricari apsolutno slazu da ova situacija mnogo lici na one pred oba svetska rata i hladnoratovsku krizu.

1) SAD i Izrael udruzene napadaju Iran. Imajuci u vidu situaciju u kojoj je americka vojska posle Iraka, glavnu odgovornost mogli bi da preuzmu Izraelci, koji bi obezbedili vecinu aviona, raketa i eventualno, trupa za kopneni napad, dok bi SAD obezbedile logisticku podrsku, ostatak avijacije i eventualno, deo trupa.
2) Momentalno po napadu, Iran objavljuje rat Izraelu, lansira rakete, koje pogadjaju Jerusalim i Tel Aviv. Hamas odmah nastavlja sa akcijama u pojasu Gaze, a Hezbolah napada Haifu i time se nastavlja rat iz 2006. Egipat i Sirija najavljuju mogucnost ulaska u rat.

Do sada, ovo deluje jedino realno. Dalje sve zavisi od raznih faktora.

Postoji mogucnost da se umesaju Egipat i Sirija, cime bismo jako brzo bili svedoci regionalnog bliskoistocnog rata, koji nije neocekivan.
Druga, fatalnija mogucnost, jos, na srecu, ne deluje realno. Ali imajuci u vidu da se svet polako polarizuje kao u Hladnom Ratu, evo jos nekih mogucnosti: Venecuela, saveznik Irana obustavlja izvoz nafte u SAD. To deluje kao znacajan udar i SAD su sada primorane da i tu zaprete intervencijom. Kolumbija i Kuba, naravno, momentalno slede primer Venecuele. Saudijska Arabija, zbog udara Izraela na Iran, radi isto sto i Venecuela. Cena nafte na zapadnim berzama u roku od nekoliko dana razbija sve rekorde. Sansa zapada je u Rusiji...
Dalje je vec krajnje tesko reci sta moze da bude. Verovatno da bi se clanice NATO-a u ovakvoj situaciji svrstale uz SAD, a Rusija i Kina, naravno uz arapski i latinoamericki svet. Nemacka bi mogla, recimo, da ima znacajnu ulogu, imajuci u vidu a je njihova vojska na visokom nivou, da je bez obzira na zabranu ideologije, obucavana u duhu vojske Treceg rajha, da, u krajnjem, ima najjaci model tenka...
Naravno, jos jednom ponavljam, sve je ovo samo jedna velika hipoteza.
 
Kad spomenu nemce, i ne slutis koliko si u pravu. Oni samo cekaju pravi momenat, to se ovde oseca na svakom koraku. U vojsci 95% razmisljaju nacisticki, kako jedan njihov oficir sam kaze. Samo sto jos uvek slusaju sta im George dabl ju kaze, znaci, pokorno ce slediti amere gde god ovi da krenu. Jest da ce boleti sto bi morali stititi izrael, ali imaju druge stvari u planu. Kad bi ,ne daj boze, sve preslo u svetski sukob, turci, rusi i drugi stranci neprihvatljive boje koze ili nacionalne pripadnosti bi odj....i karijeru. Sto se tice arapskih zemalja, zna se sta ce da rade ako se sukob razbukta i stvar izmakne kontroli, navalit ce na izrael ko mutavi, ali ne verujem u tu opciju, dokle god su onako nejedinstveni.
 
hektorius:
Sto se tice arapskih zemalja, zna se sta ce da rade ako se sukob razbukta i stvar izmakne kontroli, navalit ce na izrael ko mutavi, ali ne verujem u tu opciju, dokle god su onako nejedinstveni.
Ovo probaju i bude im zbogom, Kaira nema, Damaska nema, Teherana nema, a to su samo tri nuklearna projektila sta sa onim stotinak sto su ostali. U izralskoj ratnoj doktrini upotreba nuklearnog oruzja je poslednja opcija za odbranu Izraela. I to ce Izraelci sigurno uraditi ako ih Arapi napadnu, jer Arapi ne nameravaju da ih isteraju iz Gaze, sa Golasnke visoravni i Sinaja vec da uniste drzavu iIzrael i izbrisu ih sa karte, ali bi ih pre toga ovi isparili.
 
Ne verujem ni u kakvu masovnu invaziju ili tako nesto. Jednostavno: nema se para. Sa druge strane vazdusni napadi su sve izvesniji. Iako se Americko stanovnistvo(barem u civilizovanom delu Amerike, ne racunajuci zaostali zapad), veoma protivi invaziji na Irak sve se vise dize tenzija protiv Irana.

Sto se nuklearnog naoruzanja tice, ako ce nego da pocne onda to nije ni Amerika ni Rusija, vec Francuska ! Zak Sirak je vec dva puta pre jedno sest meseci do godinu dana izjavio da ako se desi teroristicki napad na Francusku ona nece oklevati da baci nuklearno oruzje na bilo koji zemlju koja podrzava teroriste. Time je mislio presvega na Iran.
 
Mislim pre svega da treba prvo biti realan, i odrediti stvarnu snagu atomskih bombi, to nije ni izbliza onako kako se pretpostavlja i kako je svima nama urezano u glavi! razaranja bi bila ogromna, ale ne tako apokalipticna kao sto se misli! Izrael nema mogucnosti da svim svojim nuklearnim potencionalom sravni moskvu, a o ostatku rusije da nepricam (uzeo sam taj grad naprimer jer je se on prostire na velikom prostranstvu, ima stanovnika kao njujork ali je povrsinski daleko, daleko veci) po onim podacima o programu nesirenja , mislim da izrael ima manje od 6 bojevih glava, ispravite me ako sam pogresio1 A drugo, nije pitanje napada na iran , pitanje isplativosti toga, i racunanja eventualnih posledica, vec prosto pitanje opstanka izraela, ako iran postane nuklearna sila, izrael ce nestati! Ja verujem da ce iran biti selektivno bombardovan, da ce se ici na unistavanje njihovog nuklearnog i raketnog potencionala, takodje vreme radi za iran, jer oni su vec poceli da se naoruzavaju modernim pvo sistemima, skoro su imali isporuku iz rusije, istina ne respektabilnog broja, ali i to je nesto, i tek pocetak njihovog naoruzavajna! I sigurno , niko do amerike i izraela nece ucestvovati u tom ratu! cak ni englezi... A mislim da od svega mi mozemo da izvucemo korist, jer mi ako zaostrimo nas stav po pitanju kosova, niko nece biti spreman na vojnu akciju protiv nas,politicki pritisak ce postojati, ali vojni ne, mozda blefiranje, ali 98 se nece ponoviti!
 

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