Why Will Vucic Lose The Elections?
Aleksandar Vucic will not lose the elections because of the Kosovo`s policy of the Serbian government. It will not happen if the court decides that Miroslav Miskovic and other suspected tycoons and controversial businessmen are innocent although Serbian policy had arrested them and Vucic himself had gained the positive political benefits from it. A key reason for the loss of the election will not be neither the arrogance nor incompetence of the local party`s officials. Vucic will lose the elections if he truly decides to reduce the Serbian state administration and the whole public sector.
Serbia has not reduced its public sector since the fall of communism. Actually, Serbian public sector has multiplied since 1990 and there are two main reasons for it:
1. The government thought that it would increase the employment and overall economic growth of the country;
2. The ruling parties have been employing their activists in the public sector in order to develop their political positions.
According to Vucic there are more than 550.000 people who are employed in the public sector in Serbia and only 400.000 people work in the private sector. This fact shows clearly that Serbia is still a typical socialist state where public sector and the central government dominate over the private sector. The rule of the governmnent is still much more important than the private initiative and that is why the institutions of civile society and the rule of law can not succeed and the endemic corruption is so widespread in Serbia.
So, let`s face it, we talk here about 550.000 people who are dependent on direct state intervention. Together with their families there are nearly 2 million people in Serbia who strongly oppose the free market-based economy. Now, Vucic and the reasonable economists think that only the free market, the rule of law and private initiative can bring Serbia to prosperity-and they are right. But, even Vucic`s party members strongly oppose this idea: they want to participate in the public sector, too. You can not find a single SNS (Vucic`s party) official who would like to devote himself to private business unrelated to the state budget and thus employ people (it is normal process in developed countries where successful businessmen go into politics and not the other way around).
Public sector SerbiaThe other rulling party, the Socialist Party of Serbia, also opposes the free market economy. Same as the largest opposition party, DS (Democratic Party) which former president Boris Tadic and the current head Dragan Djilas have turned the party`s program from the free market economy (and that was the reform concept of Zoran Djindjic) to the state-directed economy. Djilas openly says that free market is a problem and he offers big state-owned companies as a solution for the Serbian economy.
Under these circumstances Vucic will face the enormous difficulties to achieve his goal. Most probably, he will lose this battle. People who vote in the elections in Serbia are those who are directly dependent on the state budget-the pensioners, the activists of the parties and the bureaucrats. They will not accept the reduction of public sector. The public sector employees do not want to lose their jobs and go into the private sector, it is their worst nightmare. And that is why they would strongly oppose any attempt to change status quo although stagnation means that the whole economy and society inevitably continue to decline.
Bearing all that in mind, Vucic has to define his target group, the people who are ready to support him in his intentions. Those people are not his party`s members. People who would support this concept are those who are currently unemployed and who truly want to work and people in private sector. Only they can understand Vucic`s language. Still, they have been listening to the lies of the politicians for decades and they have lost their enthusiasm and Vucic therefore must gain their trust again. And he can do that only if he truly does what he says and he does it quickly. This process must be completed in two years or it will never be finished.These people will accept everything: the independence of Kosovo, Vojvodina, gay pride, tycoon-run government, whatever. But they will never accept to lose job in public sector. An that is the fact.
With the current state of perception in Serbia, the second option is far more promising.